South.Point Tuggeranong shopping centre is gearing up for an influx of customers on the weekend. Sale signs are up in almost every shop and people like Joe Scarletta and Mindy Martin with their three young children are taking advantage.
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They are among millions of Australian shoppers tipped to splurge more than $6 billion on Christmas gifts and other purchases in store and online as Black Friday sales swing into high gear through the weekend.
It's a welcome boost for retailers, who have seen turnover slump in the past 18 months as high inflation and interest rates have bitten deeply into household budgets. Consumers are expected to dig into thin financial buffers to take advantage of significant discounts being offered.
But this young family said Christmas celebrations won't be big this year. Their rent has gone up and Mr Scarletta is holding on tight to his money.
Ms Martin is planning to take advantage of sales to make sure her children's Christmas wishes come true, but admitted things are tough.
"It's been a struggle all year. All of the groceries I buy for the kids have gone up but the Black Friday sales are coming up at a good time when we need it," Ms Martin said.
The Black Friday and Cyber Monday are an American tradition, which has been growing in popularity in Australia. It's now at the point that the late November sales provide a bigger boost to retailers' bottom lines, than December - when they used to look forward to Australians doing their Christmas shopping.
Economists warn the coming weekend's spending spree might be short-lived and is likely to be followed by much weaker expenditure during December.
Australian Retailers Association chief executive officer Paul Zahra said that despite the financial pressure on families, the forecast was for total sales over the four-day Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend (November 24 to 27) to reach $6.36 billion - a 3 per cent increase from last year.
"More and more consumers are being budget-conscious in light of the cost-of-living crisis, so the Black Friday sales are an ideal time to grab a bargain and save some unnecessary stress the weeks before Christmas," Mr Zahra said.
Outside the main entrance of South.Point Tuggeranong shopping centre, grandmother Vicki Clarke is holding a bag full of Christmas crackers.
For Ms Clarke and many Australians, the Black Friday sales are a recent phenomenon. The grandmother was never a fan of the crowded Boxing Day sales and prefers the imported American version.
"Going to the shops is much easier [at this time], Black Friday suits me much more. I can buy presents before Christmas," she said.
Reflecting the tough environment for many, spending growth per person is being outstripped by inflation - that is, despite spending more their money isn't going as far - showing that most households are reining in their consumption, according to the CommBank iQ Cost of Living Insights report.
According to the report, the amount going on essentials increased by 1.6 per cent in the September quarter while outlays on discretionary items and services were flat.
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Spending was particularly weak among younger households that were most likely to be renting or have a large mortgage, underlining the impact of high housing costs on many.
Those aged 25 to 29 years are the most affected, cutting back their overall spending by 5.1 per cent in the past year - the biggest decline of any age group.
Gen Z's Oliva Kurzynie and Mahi Gaur are some of the young adults who are being hit hardest by cost-of-living pressures.
The tech-savvy friends approach the Black Friday sales with an online focus.
"We definitely buy more online than in-person and we're already seeing a majority of the sales directed towards us on our phones," the friends said.
While big retailers recorded huge profits throughout the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis, small businesses like Dr Boom Communications are hoping the Black Friday spending splurge will improve their turnover.
The phone repair and accessories shop's technician, Sachin Sahrestha, said "it has been quiet this year. Fewer people are buying accessories for their technology. We have a Black Friday sale and we're hoping people will take advantage of that to buy gifts for their loved ones".
Regardless of sales this weekend, tough times loom for retailers.
While the Black Friday sales are expected to entice many to spend over coming days, a joint ARA-Roy Morgan survey has found that 30 per cent of shoppers plan to cut their Christmas gift budget this year, reducing the average spend to $646 per person, down from $700 last year.
Overall, Australians are expected to spend $67.1 billion in the lead up to Christmas, a minor 0.6 per cent increase from 2022, according to the ARA.
"Many Australians are under significant financial pressure, and their Christmas gifting behaviour will reflect this," Mr Zahra said.
"For retailers, sales and promotions will be more important than ever this year - especially on the marquee Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend."
Commonwealth Bank chief economist Stephen Halmarick said experience from recent years showed that a sales-related surge in spending this month was followed by weaker retail activity in December, evidence that discounting mostly affected when people spent, rather than how much.
Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show a 1.6 per cent jump in retail turnover in November last year was followed by a 3.9 per cent plunge in sales the following month.
Heightened concerns about the possibility of more interest rate hikes is unlikely to help change that scenario.
Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has sounded a warning about the nature and scale of the nation's inflation problem that has fueled speculation that monetary policy might tighten further.
In hawkish comments, Ms Bullock told an Australian Business Economists conference that "the remaining inflation challenge we are dealing with is increasingly homegrown and demand driven".
"A more substantial monetary policy tightening is the right response to inflation that results from aggregate demand exceeding the economy's potential to meet that demand," she said.
The minutes of the most recent RBA board meeting show its forecasts for inflation to fall below 3 per cent by the end of 2025 were predicated on "one or two" more rate hikes. One of those rate moves came on Melbourne Cup Day and several economists tip a further hike to 4.6 per cent in February, following the release of December quarter inflation data.