Jon Gaul - a key figure in the Merimbula branch of the Liberal Party and former Canberra political lobbyist - is in the United States to analyse the race for the White House.
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Mr Gaul flies to Denver, Colorado, tomorrow to start a four-day post-mortem on the US election at the 49th conference of the International Association of Political Consultants.
In an email to Fairfax Media earlier this week, Mr Gaul, of Tura Beach, said that two days out from the election, Hillary Clinton retained a diminished but solid lead of 3 to 4 per cent over Donald Trump in the national polls.
"Hillary and Bill Clinton, Barack and Michelle Obama and a conga line of Hollywood and show biz celebrities have pulled out all stops in the final days to get out the black and Latino vote," Mr Gaul said.
"American voting is not compulsory, and Obama’s impressive 2008 and 2012 black voter turnout is well down in pre-poll voting this time, although early Latino voter participation is up.
"This ‘minority' black/Latino voter turnout is crucial in the five or six ‘battleground’ US states which will decide who is the next US president.
"Florida is the most important and closest contest, with Clinton and Trump dead-heated in the polling.
"If Trump can win Florida, he has a pathway to the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House.
"If Trump loses Florida, Hillary becomes the first US woman president - smashing the last pane in the glass ceiling. Game over.
"But a Trump victory in Florida would only be the first step to success for the ultra-nationalist billionaire, who is their populist hero for the white working class of America’s rust belt states - the losers of globalisation.
"To win, Trump must carry other key states: North Carolina; Ohio; Iowa; Pennsylvania or Michigan and New Hampshire. He must also overcome a big deficit amongst white women voters. It’s a tall order.
"Maybe there’s a “great silent majority” of American voters out there ready to respond to Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ promise and throw out the Washington DC elites and special interests.
"But it’s just as likely that the powerful combination of the superior political grass roots organisation of the Democratic Party and the unquestioning support of most of the US media will see a continuation of the Clinton dynasty," he said.
