Scary territory
Sea level is up 20cm since 1900 and more of Australia’s rain came from heavy falls.
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Really?
With ocean warming a constantly growing ramp on the temperature chart, and our emissions staying on the high side, it’s more likely that sea level rise can go a metre this century.
Collapse of the marine sections of the Antarctic ice sheet is one big canary that has started singing.
A warmer atmosphere holds more water and creates more intense rain events along our southern coast, especially in autumn and summer.
But due to the way our pressure systems move over the year, winter and spring rainfall are projected to continue their decline.
Although fewer frosts for Bega, Cobargo and Candelo might make us cocky, reduced snow cover will give skiers long faces.
And what about our more extreme fire weather in southern and eastern Australia since the 1970s - just an aberration, a cycle?
CSIRO and the BOM don’t think so.
If emissions stay high the CSIRO/BOM says we are looking to a 3-5C rise in temperature before the century ends.
Beyond 2C is really frightening territory, with longer, more frequent and severe droughts and much more extreme fire weather.
We could decide to switch our investments?
Into fossil-reducing and fossil-free firms, buy a few more solar panels, ethical super, more local food.
Bega Valley Shire has already switched surf clubs, halls and sewerage farms over with the help of Clean Energy for Eternity and expanded our farmers markets.
Our progressive council has not yet tested the new tidal generators here, but I'm sure they won't be long.
Voting with our wallet is a sure way to help change a playing field and encourage developments that will help us all.
Even the Rockefellers are doing it!
The electric car is now not far.
My prediction for Bega is five years for early adopters and 10 for making a noticeable change, 20 years for being the majority on the roads.
But they tried to predict mobile phone uptake and were 120 times wrong, so I’m probably being too conservative.
Do an “Australia electric cars review” search on the net to watch what’s possible and be part of the change that can make it all happen faster.
The big pollies won't save us, but they'll follow.
Dean Turner
Bermagui
Disputing science
Sorting through the pros and cons of global warming/climate change can be confusing.
From its scientific, technical and socio-economic reports over its 26 years, the UNIPCC has shaped five political Summaries for Policymakers (SMP) assessment reports for its 194 member countries to copy in order to create the international climate/environment policy it seeks using the “settled science”.
In 2007, member countries learned that the real purpose of the “settled science” is “about how we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth”, Dr Ottmar Edenhofer Lead Author AR4 (2007) SPM.
Now we are learning how the SMPs’ shaping process of the “settled science” is reliant on outputs from unvalidated speculative computer models - “Simplifications and differences in assumptions are the reason why output...... and projections from all models can differ considerably from the reality that unfolds”, Dr Ottmar Edenhofer Lead Author AR5 2014 SPM (i.e. longhand for GIGO “Garbage In - Garbage Out”).
Governments who have copied the settled science redistribution policies have expended hundreds of billions pursuing GIGO SPMs contributing greatly to their depressing economic situations – for example the European Union.
Similarly, Australia’s governments - Green/ALP (2007-13) used the settled science SPMs as the foundation for their policies without disclosing the real purpose, with this result:
* ongoing interest cost on borrowing equal to 1 x cost of an ABC @ $1.2billion/month or about $14billion/year;
* inordinate borrowings with threatening debt levels; and
* a depressingly loss of industry and jobs.
The Abbott government is now expected to magically recover Australia from this very difficult situation by repaying the capital borrowed, “saving” one ABC equivalent each month, while stimulating/ creating new industries and jobs.
A challenge made hugely more difficult by the obstructionism of Green/ALP senators on behalf of those who blindly followed the “settled science”.
This is dumb!
Whither trust and honesty?
Neville Hughes
Surf Beach