A SUCCESSFUL Australian bid to host the 2018 FIFA World Cup will require the almost impossible task of splitting Europe's powerful voting bloc.
That's the consensus of insiders from Australia and Europe alike.
Few people with genuine expertise on bid tactics - either at home or around the world - will speak on the record about the challenges Australia will face but background briefings reveal a process complicated by a web of alliances, deals and paybacks for favours rendered.
To be successful, Australia will need to win over at least 13 of the 24 members of FIFA's executive committee, perhaps the most powerful group of sports administrators in the world. The committee will announce just how the bid process for 2018 and 2022 will work after meeting in Tokyo next Saturday.
Members usually vote as a regional bloc in line with the membership of their respective confederations. Australia's strategy has long been based on quickly locking in nine votes. Four Asian votes must be guaranteed, including that of influential Asian Football Confederation president Mohamed bin Hammam, an ally of both Football Federation Australia chairman Frank Lowy and FIFA president Sepp Blatter. Australia will also collect a vote from the Oceania Football Confederation, possibly tied to a guarantee that Wellington Phoenix, an OFC team, will retain a place in the A-League after the current licence expires in 2011.
Australia also will need the four votes of the African delegates. This is where FFA and the Federal Government will have to demonstrate deft diplomatic skills.
According to some, Africa will readily support Australia but others suggest its four votes will go to a European candidate because big-money funding for development in the region comes from the cash-rich UEFA, Europe's governing body.
"Who, apart from FIFA, gives Africa large dollops of aid?" asked one insider. "UEFA."
With the six votes of South America and North and Central America likely to be aligned, the host of 2018 is likely to be decided by Europe's nine votes.
UEFA president Michel Platini, a former adviser to FIFA's Blatter, has privately ordered European countries to unite behind one candidate and has said he will not cast his executive committee vote unless there is accord.
This complicates the game for those candidates who have already announced themselves - among them England and the Holland-Belgium double act. Spain - which would receive 2018 support from the Americas - and Russia are also contemplating joining the fray.
England, playing a sentimental card in positioning itself as "the home of football", also has used the well-connected European Consultancy Network as adviser. ECN, based in Switzerland, is run by Markus Siegler, until recently FIFA's director of communications, and Peter Hargitay, once Blatter's Mr Fix-It.
For Australia to be successful in its 2018 bid, it will have to split either the Americas or the Europe bloc but, according to several sources, will need to mount a compelling case to achieve this.
"Whatever Europe might split over, it won't be Australia," said one source. "The essential thing for them is to keep the tournament in Europe - more jobs - so deals will be made."
As-yet-undeclared 2018 contenders could present Australia with more challenges.
China is understood to be considering a run, even if AFC president bin Hammam has previously said Asia will only officially endorse one bid. Qatar, bin Hammam's home country, also has made noises but its credentials are believed to lack strength primarily because of weather conditions in June, when the tournament would likely be held.
Other observers suggest declarations from either the US or Mexico could play havoc with the form guide.
Barack Obama's election as US President has not gone unnoticed and according to one FIFA official Blatter is awaiting an invitation to visit the White House next year.
WHO'S WHO: WHERE ARE AUSTRALIA'S 13 VOTES?
■ Europe (9) Switzerland, , Spain, France, England, Belgium, Turkey, Russia, Cyprus, Germany.
■ South America (3) Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay.
■ Africa (4) Cameroon, Tunisia, Nigeria, Cote D'Ivoire.
■ Asia (4) South Korea, Qatar, Thailand, Japan.
■ North America (3) Trinidad and Tobago, USA, Guatemala.
■ Oceania (1) Tahiti.